BOLIVIAN ELECTIONS 2019

REPORT ON 2019 BOLIVIAN ELECTIONS

PAPA HEMINGHWAY IN CUBA

Ernest Hemingway died in Ketchum, Idaho on July 2, 1961, precisely fifty-six years ago. He spent more time in Cuba than anywhere else in his life. He had a long and hard passion for writing, hunting, fishing, boxing, and anti-fascist activities. But even though his writing brought him glory, his anti-fascism brought him fracas and loss, and eventual debilitated further his mental and physical abilities. He had killed big fish, big game, men at war, and at last he killed himself.

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Ernest Miller Hemingway visited Cuba starting in 1932. In 1940, he bought Finca Vigía near Havana and made it his home until little before his death in Idaho. From Key West, Florida, where he resided before Cuba, to the waters north of Havana, the Gulf Stream became the scenario for Hemingway’s passion with deep-sea fishing and the steering of his cabin cruiser Pilar through the sometimes serene and other times bustling waters. He wrote his book The Old Man and the Sea and other stories about the life and nature of the Stream which, together with the North Atlantic Drift, have brought so much life and adventure to the region.

The waters of the Gulf Stream and the island-nation of Cuba consistently became the main outlet of Hemingway’s outgoing, super-masculine personality; and with World War Two brought back his dreams of finishing the fascist threat he left in the Spanish Civil War. After the war, however, he fell prey, as many intellectuals and journalists did , to Castro’s revolution that sneakily switched from a social uprising into a Marxist state and a friend of the Soviet Union, as well as an enemy of the United States. With debilitating health and evolving depression and paranoia, Hemingway bore the brunt of these and other mistakes in his life to the point of committing suicide.

The Old Man and the Sea

Ernest “Papa” Hemingway finished this epic novel in eight weeks in a concise and direct style that he became famous for and that gave him the Pulitzer Prize in 1953 and contributed to his Nobel Prize for literature in 1954. It was based on a story he heard in the village of Cojimar a few miles east of Havana where he docked his cabin cruiser Pilar. The story centers on the harsh life of the fishermen and their daily struggle with nature. Hemingway called it an “epilogue to all my writing…”

Gregorio Fuentes, the thin, gaunt and sea-seasoned Cuban who helped and taught Hemingway about deep-sea fishing in the Gulf Stream, inspired the character of the old fisherman named Santiago who goes out to deep waters north of Havana. He had spent eighty-four days trying to catch a fish without success; and his young helper Manolito was told by his father not to go with Santiago anymore. Santiago nevertheless is a famed fisherman and goes out again in search of fish and ventures into deeper waters [“My big fish must be somewhere.”] The struggle of Santiago with an 18-foot marlin he finally catches goes on for three days [“Now is the time to think of only one thing. That which I was born for.”] Santiago’s back is hurt after supporting the pull of the line that holds the fish. His hands are raw by the line that cuts into his flesh. He eats raw fish and drinks and sleeps little [“He rested sitting on the un-stepped mast and sail and tried not to think but only to endure.”]. Throughout the book, Santiago thinks of his struggle with the marlin in intimate terms and talks out loud venting his believe of man against nature [“I’ll stay with you until I am dead.”] He calls the fish his brother and respects him but is determined to kill him. He also respects the sea as a maternal source and calls it la mar. He respects the sky during the day and at night [“I am glad we do not have to try to kill the stars.”] Finally Santiago tires the fish and pulls it closer to his skiff and kills it with a harpoon. He  ties it to the side of the boat and starts to sail back home [“With his mouth shut and his tail straight up and down we sail like brothers.”]
He loses his harpoon and knife when sharks attack the dead marlin and take big bites turning the splendid merlin into a carcass. Santiago apologizes to the fish and manages to sail back to his village where he started the voyage. He eventually makes it to land and earns the respect of the fishermen and the young Manolito, and sleeps exhausted.
The “good fight” of Santiago to catch the big marlin presents the concepts of courage and death found in most of Hemingway’s writing. In the book, he emphasizes Santiago’s virtues of patience, respect and humility. He tells us of Santiago’s strength, ability and dignity. And he tells us about the love and kindness of Manolito. As Santiago’s puts it: “A man can be destroyed but not defeated.”
Hemingway showed more of himself in The Old Man and the Sea than in any other book and he was able to express to the world a literature that came from the deepest of his being in the form of a simple fisherman.

The Cuban Story

Hemingway loved Cuba and lived there in his Finca Vigía from 1939 until 1960, when under advice from the American embassy in Havana he left the island and then could not return because of his deteriorating health. His love affair with the island lasted longer than any of his four marriages.

Hemingway’s life in Cuba consisted not only of literary creativity, but also of a life of sport adventures, social partying, and espionage intrigue—as signatory to both the U.S. and the Soviet Union.  Although not a drinker when he wrote, he was a heavy drinker socially and would consume a quart of a whiskey bottle at a time. Through the years he continued his fishing, hunting and boxing. His son Patrick stated that Ernest Hemingway compensated his insecurities by projecting a larger-than-life image. This mythic image overshadowed in many instances the writer that he was.

A native of conservative Oak Park, Illinois, Hemingway believed in small government, and according to friends his individualism could not agree with the communist ideology.  As Hemingway resided in Key West and Havana far away from European strict ideological lines, enjoying sunny days and feeling free as the waves of the ocean in front of him, in many instances Hemingway attacked policies of the U.S. government, while seldom calling attention to the atrocities perpetuated by Stalin’s or Mao’s purges.

According to Nicholas Reynold’s book Writer, Sailor, Soldier, Spy, by January, 1941, in a trip to New York, Hemingway agreed to do work for the Soviet’s NKVD (People’s Commissariat for Internal Affairs), a precursor of the KGB (Committee for State Security)—something that haunted him later. Hemingway’s contact with the NKVD dates back to 1937 during his intervention in the Spanish Civil War when the Spanish Republic’s Military Intelligence Service (SIM) closely collaborated and was influenced by the NKVD. In 1937, Hemingway became friendly with Alexander Orlov, the NKVD head in Spain. The soviets saw his allegiance to the Spanish Republic as a propaganda opportunity vis-à-vis the United Sates and pursued this image of Hemingway in their communist propaganda. The NKVD soon code-named Hemingway Argo.

According to Peter Moreira in his book Hemingway and the China Front, Hemingway’s February, 1941 visit to Hong Kong, allowed him to be briefed by knowledgeable Asia experts and to travel to Chongqing to meet Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek and Madame Chiang, His later meeting with then Communist leader Zhou Enlai, and his praise of him did not go well with the U.S. State department.

In the same year, Hemingway collaborated with Lieutenant Colonel John W. Thomason, Jr. in the book Men at War: The Best War Stories of All Time.  Hemingway had met Thompson in a Washington briefing after his trip to China. In N. Reynolds: “With characteristic praise for Soviet and Chinese communist fighters, he (Hemingway) singled out as one of the finest stories in this book that «you must not miss» an over-the-top piece by the American communist (and Soviet spy) Agnes Smedley. The old China hand who had met Hemingway in Hong Kong wrote in glowing terms about the long-suffering fighters in Mao and Chou’s Eight Route Army…” Hemingway’s foray into Asia was cut short by War World Two.

Upon his returned to Cuba later in 1942, Hemingway sought and gained the support of the U.S. embassy for a spy mission. Reynolds: “In 1942, Hemingway told the U.S. Embassy in Cuba that in 1937 he had worked with the Spanish-Republican counterintelligence and that he could set up a similar operation in Havana.” Hemingway also admitted shooting adversaries cold-blooded in Spain (Reynolds.)

He nicknamed his group the Crook Factory for the official embassy’s Crime Section, and proceeded to report dutifully on pro-Nazi activities in Havana, primarily by German and Spanish expatriates. He sustained meetings of the Crooks Factory in his finca and in the Floridita Bar until late hours of the morning with a profusion of liquor, cigars and fist fights. His efforts were not very fruitful, but served to irritate the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI), and especially its director J. Edgar Hoover, who did not approve of the author’s prior record in Spain. Reynolds: ”Hemingway had signed an opened letter denouncing the FBI for arresting activists in Detroit who had supported the Spanish Republic, a violation of the Neutrality Act. Hemingway was «accused of being of Communist sympathy, although we are advised that he has denied and [continues to]…vigorously deny any Communist affiliation or sympathy».” Hemingway had previously compared the FBI with the German Gestapo, but later said that it was a joke.

During this period of the second World War, Hemingway visited Mexico to see bullfights and to visit with left-wing friends from the Spanish Civil War times who were in exile, such as former communist commissar Gustaf Regler, who had quit the Soviet cause, and to whom Hemingway said in a drunkard rage “The U.S. is finished, just like France…The Russians are the only ones who are doing any fighting (Reynolds).”

Hemingway’s second self-appointed undercover project was to cruise in his U.S. Government-sponsored heavily armed cabin cruiser Pilar in search of German U-Boats. In 1942, with the help of American Ambassador Spruille Braden, Hemingway started Operation Friendless under the Naval Attaché of the embassy. This later episode is found in the pages of his book Islands on the Stream.

According to Reynolds, sinking by German submarines went on “…eventually peaking around fifteen hits a month in the spring of 1942.” And, “The overstretched Navy had called on civilian sailors to patrol the Atlantic shoreline in their own boats, and keep an eye out for periscopes or submarines on the surface. They were to report any sightings, without attacking the enemy. This semiofficial initiative, which ran through the third quarter of 1943, came to be called «Hooligan’s Navy».”

As the war ended, Hemingway continued his opposition to the U.S. government writing in the communist U.S. publication New Masses to denounce the U.S government for its disregard for war veterans and the latest Key West hurricane disaster. At that point, the Soviets were seeking contact with those who had cooperated with them in the past. Reynolds: “While Operation Friendless was winding down, an NKVD «worker»—presumably a Soviet intelligence officer—met Hemingway in Cuba to take his operational pulse.”

 

The Cuban Revolution

In 1957, The New York Times reporter Herbert L. Matthews interviewed Fidel Castro in the Sierra Maestra region of Cuba, proclaiming that Castro was a freedom fighter and giving him international notoriety. Hemingway agreed with Matthews, whom he had met in the Spanish Civil War. Reynolds: “…Hemingway helped to shape the reporter’s (Matthews) ideas about the 26^th of July Movement even before he first put pen to paper to write anything about Castro.” Around the same time, Hemingway was the victim of harassment by the Cuban dictator-president Batista. Hemingway stated that the “only conspiracy was one to drink whiskey (Reynolds).” Cuba was becoming dangerous territory for American civilians, with government guards harassing anyone connected with left-leaning politics, and with the threat of Castro’s people kidnapping Americans—or so the rumors went. By November 1957, Hemingway wrote to his son about the situation in Cuba: “No one is right—both sides atrocious… (Reynolds).”

Batista fled the island on January 1, 1959 and Fidel Castro took power soon after. Back in Idaho, where Hemingway had gone for an extended vacation, his words to the press about the Cuban Revolution were: “I believe in the historical necessity for the Cuban Revolution and I believe in its long-range aims (Reynolds).” Meanwhile, Castro was committing his government to summary executions of dissidents. Upon his return to Cuba on March 1959, Hemingway wrote to his son: “…this is a real Revolution. Something like what we [had] hoped for in Spain (Reynolds).” Soon after, Hemingway volunteered to prepare Castro for press briefings in an upcoming visit by the Cuban to the U.S. Around the same time, Hemingway’s kissing of the Cuban flag in public was mentioned in a classified Embassy report as: “…publicly take a position which displays either (1) strong criticism of his government and compatriots, or (2) a remarkable ignorance concerning developments in Cuba…”

Castro on May 1960 in a Hemingway fishing competition and both claimed admiration of each other. Upon the termination of U.S. aid to Cuba by President Eisenhower, Hemingway denounced the “dictatorial face of the U.S. (Reynolds).”
After the Sugar Quota agreement benefiting Cuba was eliminated, the American embassy advised Americans to leave the island. According to Valerie Danby-Smith, Hemingway’s secretary, then American Ambassador in Havana Phlip W. Bonsal, although a friend of Hemingway, warned him personally to leave Cuba and requested that Hemingway express publicly his disagreement with the way things were going on in Castro’s Cuba, otherwise: “…there could be consequences (Reynolds).” Also the word “traitor” was mentioned, and that Hemingway “would have to make an open choice between his country and his home (Reynolds).” At that time, Fidel Castro took to quoting Hemingway’s support for his regime. Hemingway was torn between his love for Cuba and his allegiance to the U.S., which to him seemed two compatible choices. His political position became a tight knot.

Hemingway’s Death

After his third wife Martha Gellhorn left him in 1946, Hemingway started to drink excessively and developed hypertension, diabetes, and weight and eye problems. His fourth wife Mary Welsh was an alcoholic. In the coming decade, he survived skin cancer, developed anemia, and contracted hepatitis. In 1954, he was in a plane accident in East Africa suffering skull fracture, internal bleeding and organ injuries.
On July 25, 1960, Hemingway left Cuba for medical treatment in the U.S. Carlos Baker, Hemingway’s biographer, made this assessment of friend’s observations on Hemingway’s health at the time: “…symptoms of extreme nervous depression: fear, loneliness, ennui, suspicion of the motives of others, insomnia, guilt, remorse, and failure of memory.” Hemingway’s psychiatrist started electroconvulsive therapy for depression and paranoia at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, which erased his memory further, and left him sick and handicapped. Writing became harder to him to the point that he could hardly write a paragraph for President Kennedy’s inauguration. He was paranoid about the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service, the FBI, the CIA and government in general. He began fearing that the U.S. Government was out to get him and to expose him and other secrets of his life. He was troubled about his Cuban experience with Castro and past associations with the Soviets. After the Bay of Pigs failed invasion and the general anti-Castro feeling in the U.S., Hemingway realized he would not be able to return to Cuba. He said: “There is no lonelier tie than writing, except for suicide.”
Upon being released from Mayo, Hemingway went back to Idaho frail and fragile. He had come to Idaho since the 1930s with his family during the hurricane seasons in Florida and Cuba and had taught his sons there that “every day should be rewarding.”
He was caught by his wife pointing a doubled-barrel shotgun at himself. On July 2, 1961, Hemingway finally shot himself and died at age sixty-one.

Jaime Otero-Zuazo

 

PAPA HEMINGWAY IN SPAIN

In spite of the universal and timeless themes of his books, Ernest “Papa” Hemingway was a man of his era, living it and breathing it as no one. He was a living legend and a true life-style icon of his time. Tragically, he also became a case example of the consequences of war in the human spirit.

In high school he was nicknamed “Hemingstein” for his insatiable thirst for beer, and hence he took to use nicknames for all his friends. He did not like the name Ernest and took to calling himself “Papa”, a name oddly used by his first wife in Paris during the early twentieth century. In ‘the City of Lights”, Hemingway intermingled with some of the most genial artists of the avant garde literary movement, such as Pablo Picasso, James Joyce, John Dos Passos, and Ezra Pound. The self-exiled American writer Gertrude Stein referred to Hemingway and all the other young expatriates in Paris as “the lost generation” for their harsh experiences in the First World War and their reckless social lives afterwards. All said this generation of intellectuals and artists turned out to be one of the most creative and innovative in history.

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A peculiar man of great bravado and a genuinely American spirit, Hemingway was the personification of the “good American”, especially around common people he met while fishing, hunting, and news-reporting around the world. He frequented bars in all the countries he visited and drank heavily. His books tell of his life passions and vices as well as bullfights, wars and romance. He reported on five wars; married four women; spoke four languages; and won the Pulitzer Prize in 1953 and the Nobel Prize 1954 for his literary acumen.

He constantly tried to prove himself and his courage to others. He was certainly the type of man who would fight to the end no matter the odds. Although generally very friendly, he became irritated with anyone he thought was a phony or talked excessively about mannered subjects—this included most literary figures who helped him along during his early writing career; like F. Scott Fitzgerald, who helped him to publish his first book; Gertrude Stein, who advised him to drop news-writing altogether and concentrate in his literary writing); and Ezra Pound, who famously told him and his writer friends in Paris to “make it new”. On many occasions, he opted to drink heavily in the company of friends he considered vain and ended up treating them with disdain, sarcasm and disapproval.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blw8zJt-Sc0&t=329s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QK_JO5kyKIk&t=29s

Hemingway’s Writing

As any good writer, Hemingway made mental pictures of how things fit in a room or particular scenery, and how everything works, including nature and man. He referred to fiction as the way to lie fantastically about real life, but he insisted on deep-knowledge of the subject at hand when writing. Overall, he was a fiercely competitive writer dedicated to his work, and he was much disciplined— in contrast to his social and marital life—, starting every day at five in the morning and ending around noon. He would start with a phrase that expressed a real-life event, and then in simple and direct language he would take the reader to faraway lands in an interesting, seductive and impressionable way. He allowed the characters to tell their own stories in their own voices, without profound psychoanalysis.

Hemingway became the greatest story-teller of modern times. He created a direct and expressive style based on his experiences as a young reporter, when he learned to emphasize short sentences and vigorous English. He described each conversation, background, or situation in an accelerated and convincing style.

Hemingway’s writing consists of short declarative sentences in a parataxis that engages the reader and does not get lost in syntax. His terse and fresh prose certainly changed the style of written English. In 1950, the New York Times referred to him as “The most important English writer since Shakespeare.” His influence on writers of his generation and beyond has been enormous.

Papa Hemingway called his style “The Iceberg Theory”, where he advised writers to “Impress the truth without saying it and making it more forceful this way. Don’t cheapen it by over-explaining something that can be left to the reader to interpret. Take the reader to fill in what is explicitly absent and makes the best of it. Don’t say the most important thing- like in music- leave the silence to fill more.”

“The Sun Also Rises”

“One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh; but the earth abideth, forever…The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down…”  Eclessiastes.

After visiting Pamplona during the festival of San Fermín with a group of fellow Paris expatriates, Hemingway fell in love with Spain and its culture, but especially with its people, whom he found more genuinely rooted in their own traditions and idiosyncrasies than the acidic and urban Parisians. Hemingway embarked on his first novel, “The Sun Also Rises”, with an augmented spirit and a convincing optimism, relieving the experiences of the Fiesta de San Fermín.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qmp4DjtWcuw&t=3s

The abundance of dialogue and drinking in the novel opens the doors to the minds and behavior of the characters in a feast of alcohol, sex, and bullfighting. The narcissism of the bon-vivant tourists drowns in brandy, whiskey, gin, wine, sherry (jerez) and manzanilla wine, resulting in a constant stupor and brawls. In this book, the boredom of vanity meets the overall excitement of the festival and the particular uproar of bull-killing in the arena.

Pamplona is in the Province of Navarre in the wet-green Basque region of Northern Spain. Every year, starting at 12:00 p.m., on July 7, and continuing for seven days, Pamplona celebrates the Fiesta de San Fermín with clamor, music, dancing, singing and festivity. And then there are seven nights of revelry…

“Thirty-foot high Giant King and Moor figures, cigar-store Indians, a King and a Queen whirling and waltzing to the riau-riau”, is how Hemingway describes the event. Girls and boys dance to the tune of hollow drums and melodious reed pipes. The players wear red handkerchiefs around their necks, and the dancers show wreaths of garlic around their necks. People place their arms around each other’s shoulders and dance the jota.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uCAALecaHA&t=29s

The cafés are places to sit and enjoy the view. Wine shops line up the streets selling leathered botas of wine, aguardiente or anís del mono (or del toro, as Hemingway joked). The sidewalks filled with merchants from all over. Daily fireworks are a show of exploding rockets with bright colors that leave a lingering smell of smoke in the air.

The 11:00 a.m. Mass at the Cathedral is the central religious event every day of the festival week. The smell of incense inside churches welcomes the procession of the statue of San Fermín, carried around town from church to church.

Hemingway’s fascination with bull fighting is seen in his narrative passion and has attracted people from all over the world to Spain, contributing greatly to internationalizing Pamplona. The bullring, the amphitheater, and the stands are the main scenario of life (and death). The aficionados, the torero, the banderilleros, the picaores and, not least, el toro, each becomes a character of this tragedy in a singular and typical way.

Every morning at dawn, with the exploding of rockets, the Running of the Bulls takes place as the bulls are let out of their corral and driven through the town’s narrow streets into the big bull ring for the encierro. Men shoved and gored (cogido) by the bulls’ horns as they run down towards the plaza de toros. In Hemingway words, “Bulls galloping tossing their heads up and down.”

Following the encierro, the arena fills with people. In the stands, there is a feeling of elation, with drums pounding, shrill pipe music playing, and the crowd dancing a form of jota. A big hum precedes every bullfight.

There is an afternoon of farce bull-fighting where a horn-padded bull is fought by anyone who dears. And then comes the real bullfight. The torero is a figure that dominates Hemingway’s “The Sun Also Rises”, and introduces us to the writer’s obsession with violent death. In a way one may think of Goya and Hemingway as twin minds in the artistic dialog of life and death— the savage aspect of life that clamors death. Both creators shared morbid and stylistic concerns about the final breath. In Spain, Hemingway found a greater purpose and meaning to life through the Spanish cultural fascination with death.

Pedro Romero (after the real Antonio Ordoñez), is the matador in Hemingway’s book, who loves bullfighting and loves the bulls, even when they gore him, or when he kills them. “The bull was named Boca Negra…” is Hemingway’s introduction to the bull that gored Romero to an eventual death. “The Sun Also Rises” is an unreal and inconsequential spectacle, but it carries a profound message of the true meaning of death as it follows life.

“For Whom the Bell Tolls”

The three-year Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) was a precursor to the violence that was to come in the Second World War only understated in levels of horror and technology. The Spanish Republic, the so-called niña bonita, began five years before the Spanish Civil War and run by an elected socialist-leaning government. The People’s Army (consisting of government military regiments and foreign brigades organized in battalions) was entrusted with the defense of the Republic. It was ill-prepared and equipped, and never achieved the level of training required for the defense of Madrid, let alone the rest of Spain. The more than forty-thousand-strong International Brigade was made of disappointed social idealist and communist fighters from different nations.

The opposing Nationalist forces of General Francisco Franco (later Generalísimo or Commander in Chief) were supported by the Italy of Mussolini and the Germany of Hitler, showcasing the latest war technology.

In 1936, Hemingway made a propaganda movie with Orson Wells called “Spanish Soil” featuring the cause of the loyalists as defenders of the elected Republican government. Hemingway was a war correspondent in the Spanish Civil War, but his involvement was more than journalistic. He acquired a deep understanding of the war and its people. Based in this close experience with the conflict Hemingway wrote “For Whom the Bell Toll” to detail the guerilla fight of the loyalist militias behind enemy (nationalist) lines.

The title of the novel comes from a poem by the English poet John Donne (1572-1631) that partly reads:

Each man’s dead diminishes me,

For I am involved in Mankind.

Therefore, send not to know

For whom the bell tolls,

It tolls for thee.

In the novel, the unrestrained killing as well as the atrocities perpetrated by both sides in the Spanish Civil War, gushes through the ironic and sarcastic conversations of the characters. The book introduces a mature and experienced Robert Jordan (el inglés), a member of the American Lincoln Battalion, who is an explosives engineer expert.

Jordan, an absinthe addict, clearly resents the Soviet involvement in the war, recalling images of apathetic Russians smoking Russian cigarettes and drinking Russian vodka parading in the lobby of the Gaylord Hotel in Madrid. But Jordan hates the nationalists even more and calls them fascists. A man of courage and conviction, Jordan blows trains and bridges to help the Republic, and in the process comes in close contact with men and women who suffer physical and mental anguish after the constant embattlement of the Spanish Civil War.

One important aspect of the novel is the role of women in this tragic war. Women showed enormous discipline, strength, and courage at all levels of the defense of the Spanish Republic. Women who participated in the guerilla and the resistance fight such as the Pasionaria, a charismatic speaker-leader who predicated the New Spain as, “A new nation forged in the discipline of its soldiers and the enduring bravery of its women.” In “For Whom the Bell Tolls”, Hemingway introduces us to Maria, whom Jordan meets and falls in love after she is freed from prison scared and shaven-headed. Maria had been raped by her nationalist captors, after her parents were murdered. We also meet Pilar, a strong and smart peasant woman, who cooks, tends to all needs, and inserts common sense in the guerilla band at all levels and finally takes over the command of the fighters from her faithless and drunkard husband, who quits altogether.

The narration of the war is vivid and real, but is limited to the loyalists’ guerrilla fight to stall the advancing forces of Franco and his Moorish troops from the south towards Madrid. It does not relay the larger war taking place in Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, and the Basque country, with scenes such as the approach of bomber planes eliciting the cry of “Aviación!, Aviación!” after the ringing-out of the alarm sirens; the planes flying-out in pursuit of enemy airplanes and sometimes bringing them down; the strong sound of explosions, rifles and heavy machine guns firing repeatedly; tanks rolling forward; the repositioning and calibration of the mortars followed by the call “Fuego!”; the Falangista infantry assault in columns of six; the wounded transported in all sorts of made up stretchers and vehicles under constant bombardment; the empty buildings in Madrid, Valencia and Barcelona without windows or doors and marked by mortar blasts and German artillery; the Italians losing in one battle more than in the entire Ethiopian War; neighborhoods organizing under juntas de defensa that had to do more with medical attention and food distribution lines than fighting; the smell of death, high-explosives smoke, and blasted granite; the clenched fist of the republicans and the high-hand fascist salute of the nationalists. And then there is Guernica…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpck_AmvbuU&t=29s

Jaime Otero-Zuazo

STATE POPULISM

Democracy and free trade are two options available to populism before it chooses the dictatorial path of government, but they are impossible to achieve once the totalitarian route is taken. State Populism is linked to totalitarianism in the internal-political aspect, and to protectionism in the economic-external facet.

The etymology of the word populism goes back to at least classical Rome, where the Factio Popularium movement arose to protest the privileges of the aristocracy in the division and distribution of land–this was an early attack by the “roman populists” against the elites.

There is no consensus on the political or philosophical definition of the word populism, and it is very often misunderstood. Different interpretations arise according to differences in culture and the personal views of pundits. When former Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico expressed his opposition to the populist movement in the region, President Barack Obama of the U.S. responded with a definitional view of the word populism and even called himself a populist–based on his campaign rhetoric of 2008, where he denounced social inequality and the political power of big business. Both presidents were right and wrong on their assessment of populism.

One thing is clear, and it is that Populism is not a political ideology, but instead an appendix of ideologies that vary from left to right in the political spectrum. However, the political meaning of the word Populism becomes conceptually clearer when we explicitly distinguish between the populism of a political campaign and the one exerted by a sitting president. Let’s call this latter concept: State Populism.

All political candidates, at all levels, are populists by definition and in different degrees of exposure. The political and analytical difference falls in evaluating the political action and decisions that are taken once political power is consolidated. Let’s consider as an example the following proposition: a political populist brings about a constitutional democratic change in Cuba, would we condemn his revolutionary populism as we did the populism of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela? To complete the thought, let’s ask a critical question each time we qualify populism: what is the political system that will best benefit a specific nation?

In the final analysis it would be more appropriate to use a terminology for populism that would best fit the actions of the populist while in government, without considering if the government is right or left-leaning, e.g.: “populist dictatorship”, or “popular nationalism.” This way we would identify the political system instead of the person alone. Lenin once said that political power cannot be conquered by telling the truth alone, but even then he was not identified mainly as a populist, but as communist throughout history, and this resulted in a clearer political target 70 years later.

The Populist

The populist rejects the present status quo and its institutions, and reclaims a better past or an allegorical future.  The populist raise social controversy by calling upon divisive themes, such as race, religion, and any subject that would validate the maxim: divide and conquer. The populist promotes fast and easy solutions under an aura of spiritual liberation and cultural emancipation, claiming only he can bring about the vindication and solution of all national problems. The populist uses narcissism as a fountain of energy to keep the thought of his own political and popular importance. The populist intends to dominate and manipulate popular culture to gain political power. Every populist is by definition a demagogue.

The populist feeds on the popular emotions, the passions, and the screws that turn the populace into political action, which is not always in agreement with rational or moral behavior. Political demagoguery touches the animal side of the populist’s mind to establish an irrational dialogue between his fatuous anxiety and the complacency of his audience. The populist declares foreign and domestic enemies to motivate people politically and to infuse hatred and revenge in their hearts. This is the hypnotical ability of the born populist.

The rational side of the mind rejects this behavior and logically empathizes with the true grievances of the people, proposing real practical solutions in return.

State Populism

Facing a weak democratic system, State Populism encourages a gradual growth in centralism, bureaucracy, and corruption, by using quick and popular economic measures, like the nationalization of natural resources—such as oil, steel mills, and telecommunications.  State Populism is even more aggressive when international matters, such as immigration, protection of national sovereignty, and international trade are at play. State Populism thrives on a protectionist economy and isolationist policies.

State Populism joins hands with a privileged oligarchy specifically chosen for its political loyalty and its economic and financial abilities to buy favors from the populist government, starting an infamous circle of corruption. The populist totalitarian government can then choose between economic winners and losers promoting clientelism and crony capitalism.

State Populism proceeds to undermine the rights and freedoms of the individual vis-à-vis the central government. Consequently, State Populism erodes the balance and independence of the powers of government. Under these circumstances State Populism ferments the growth of totalitarianism from within.  This is the origin of a dictatorial populism on its way to consolidate autocratic rule.

A totalitarian autocracy eliminates the individual and replaces it with a model of unanimity and homogeneousness. The populist dictator then proclaims the advent of a unique and truthful people, elevating the themes of race, religion, and other emotional stimulants.

State Populism is simplistic in theory because it possesses an intrinsic contradiction, which is that the principle of cultural unanimity contradicts reality. Social reality is heterogeneous in its composition, and it’s dynamic as it keeps changing.  Homogeneity is a utopia in temporal terms. Popular culture and its idiosyncrasies cannot be dictated by the government but by the people themselves. The mysticism of unanimity remains alive only because of mere political ignorance and irrationality of the masses, or by the police force of an alternate State.

Jaime Otero-Zuazo

TRUMP THE PRESIDENT

The almost universal reason for supporting Trump was to send a message of revolt to the Establishment, specifically against cultural disdain and corruption. The social motivators were the concerns about economic growth and employment, and the idea that the country in general is not headed in the right direction. Trump’s campaign was misunderstood and underrated, as Selena Zito, a hands-on journalist, famously said last week: ‘The press takes Trump literally, not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.”

 ELECTIONS RESULTS – 2016

Republican Donald Trump won the Electoral College vote over Democrat Hillary Clinton in the blow-out presidential election of November 8, 2016. Older white men came in for Donald Trump more than any other group, mostly in the Rust Belt, South East, and Western states, breaking the Blue Wall of sates controlled by Democrats since the 1980s. Overall, however, there was not a substantial increase in white male and female votes for either candidate, although more women voted for Trump than for Clinton. The second largest demographic group supporting Trump were the Hispanics, who gave him 29% of their vote; African-Americans gave him 8% of their general vote. The total popular vote fell short of past elections as many voters abstained. The almost universal reason for supporting Trump was to send a message of revolt to the Establishment, specifically against cultural disdain and corruption. The social motivators were the concerns about economic growth and employment, and the idea that the country in general is not headed in the right direction. Trump’s campaign was misunderstood and underrrated, as Selena Zito, a hands-on journalist, famously said last week: ‘The press takes Trump literally, not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.”

Trump now faces a complicated agenda as president. Other than the transitional effort, he has to deal with uniting a reluctant and polarized nation—exacerbated by white supremacists support for Trump, and his hideous campaign rhetoric. He also has to battle the ISIS War in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya; renegotiate bilateral and multilateral trade agreements and military alliances; face financial market uncertainty and international currency instability, and repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (Obama Care). He will also have to immediately address the budget and national debts, among other tasks at hand. Other less pressing items—even though they were important promises of the campaign— are: building the border Wall, deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants, the Muslim immigration ban, and the criminal prosecution of Hillary Clinton.

And last, but not least, he will have to come to grips with the 18 to 34 years-old Millennials, who are the largest voting bloc and whose absence from the ballot boxes single-handedly caused Hillary Clinton the presidency. The Popular Vote, with a slight margin in Clinton’s favor, was around 61 million votes for each the Clinton Democrats and the Trump Republicans. Millennials are a very broad spectrum of more than 90 million Americans who were born after the year 1980. In 2020, Millennials will merge with younger coming-of-age voters to become the largest voting bloc in a generation.

Jaime Otero Zuazo

THE POET’S HOUSE

 

Every poem inspires and my soul revives

Every dream expires and flies away from me

Every reason surges; every thought survives

And all the time it is me who misses thee

 

Step by step walking to a halting crawl

Going so far to meet the star

Will she be there to meet my soul?

Will I be enough to fill her heart?

 

Oh great God of mine, where are thou?

I think not of you but in a human form

As your spirit fear brings to me now

I cannot think that deeply of Thy norm

 

Only nature lies in front of me

And only it can explain myself to me

I do not know if others wait or rush

Or are they but phantoms or mirage

 

Is it my soul my reason to be?

Or is it my body that carries me?

Or perhaps neither the reality be

And instead verse comes through and not me

 

by Jaime Otero-Zuazo

The Social Dilemma – U.S. 2016

Even after their disproportionate sacrifices in war and their hard work in factories and steel mills to make America great, the poor white’s hopes for the American Dream of economic opportunity and social upper mobility did not materialize for a large majority of them. The poor white continued their long journey of intergenerational poverty as the brand of their American experience. The U.S. has exceeded levels of poverty in relation to other wealthy nations since the 1930s. But to make matters worse, starting in the 1980s, factories and steel mills began to shed jobs or close down altogether, and wages became stagnant. Under the clear disregard of their plight by the rest of society, today’s poor whites are the largest suffering and unemployed members of the so-called Silent Majority that largely supports Donald Trump.

Why the richest nation in the world by far has 15% of its population, or 40 million in numbers, in a state of deprivation according to latest U.S. Census threshold figures? About half of those living in extreme poverty, or around 20 million in 2010, are non-Hispanic white. Relative measures of poverty show an income disparity that makes half of the entire population poorer, while the other half gets richer. Under these relative terms, the poor white are growing poorer than any other ethnic group and are the main recipients of welfare funds and social assistance from government. What is the relation between white poverty and the advent of Donald Trump’s 2016 candidacy to the forefront of American politics? If we are to believe Daniel Patrick Moynihan when he said, “High crime and poverty rates are all cultural pathologies”, then let’s explore the social phenomenon of white poverty in the same vein.

APPALACHIA

It’s been demonstrated through research and polling that the staunchest supporters of Donald Trump, the 2016 Republican nominee for the presidency of the United states, are the poor European-white, whom together with a smaller group of dissatisfied middle-class voters allowed him to win the Republican primary. Most of the poor white are either living in the Appalachian Mountain region that runs through Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New York, or are migrants from this region to the entire United States, concentrating mainly in the industrial so-called Rust Belt region (where they are about 30% of the population) that straddles mainly the upper North-Eastern, the Great Lakes, and the Midwest states.

ECONOMIC REALITY

The Rust Belt is an area decimated by an economic decline that did not result from global competition as much as from the lack of modernization, education, and investment in the metal and manufacturing industries during the past decades. Germany and Japan had greater costs of production and labor during the same period, yet they managed to avoid the fallout that troubles the United States by keeping ahead of the labor, education, and technology game, and continuously innovating and modernizing their industries at par with higher labor skills and education. Technologies such as robotics, nanotechnology, and biotechnology can replace Chinese and Mexican workers, but that will still leave unemployed American manufacturing workers isolated and unqualified. And even when one considers that American workers are among the most productive and hard-working in the world, they lack the education and skills for today’s hi-tech manufacturing. If you bring all the jobs back from China and Mexico, they would need to be reinvented to compete with the rest of the world, and will require a more educated labor force.

HISTORY

Starting in the early 18^th century, the Appalachian Mountains were populated by pioneer settlers that became the dominant land-owning class— later joined by professionals such as lawyers, bankers, and medical doctors. The region was also a refuge for large numbers of English and Scottish immigrants who did not fit in the competitive and overcrowded towns and cities of Eastern United states. According to Isenberg*, “England sent its worse destitute city dwellers, including children, in a practice called spiriting–creating a class of white laborers that served as disposable property.” They were “roguish highway men, mean vagrants, known whores, and convicts of all kinds.”

Most of the settlers were originally day laborers in the slave economy of the South, then sharecropper, and then coal miners and loggers. When large numbers of Irish immigrants came to Appalachia, as well as other smaller groups of European nationalities like Germans, Italians and Polish, they became machinists, mill workers and factory workers. Today, most Appalachian poor are ethnically classified as Scot Irish.

During the American Revolution, George Washington said that only the “lower-class people should serve as foot soldiers.” And Thomas Jefferson expressed the need to bring German immigrants to the new America to improve the “breeding stock of laborers and the work ethic.” He said, “The circumstances of superior beauty is thought worthy of attention in the propagation of our horses, dogs, and other animals, why not in that of man?”

THE SOCIAL DILEMMA

The Scot Irish from Appalachia have long been poor and uneducated. By the time of the First World War, and especially after the Second World War when a manufacturing boom erupted, millions of them moved from the hills of Eastern Kentucky, West Virginia, and Eastern Tennessee into Southern Ohio; and later into Northern Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New York. But Appalachian migrants did not fit in urban centers and large factory towns and cities where privacy and the nuclear family juxtaposed their own large family networks, and the support and enjoyment they had in their past intimate communities and family gatherings.

Even after their disproportionate sacrifices in war and their hard work in factories and steel mills to make America great, poor whites’ hopes for the American Dream of economic opportunity and social upper mobility did not materialize for a large majority of them. The poor white continued their long journey of intergenerational poverty as part of their American experience. The U.S. has exceeded levels of poverty in relation to other wealthy nations since the 1930s. But to make matters worse, starting in the 1980s, factories and steel mills began to shed jobs or close down altogether, and wages became stagnant. Under the clear disregard of their plight by the rest of society, today’s poor white are the largest suffering and unemployed members of the so-called Silent Majority that largely supports Donald Trump. And even those who adjusted and did better began to realize that there is no consolidated and identified social group for whites; that uneducated whites can also suffer residential segregation brought about by urban gentrification; that there is a world apart between the Eastern WASPs and them; that even spoken grammatical English sets them apart. They are referred to with such pejorative expressions as Hillbillies, Rednecks or White trash. The American race-conscious society began to extend its prejudice tentacle to those with lack of education and skills.

And then they gave up: the new generation of poor whites has serious endemic problems that are self-inflicted, such as suffering from an alarming opioid and heroin addiction—causing overdose deaths in greater numbers than natural causes—; family disintegration, child neglect and abuse, and higher divorce rates; higher anxiety, frustration, depression, low esteem and general apathy to work. They are even accused of having lost their patriotism and their spiritual identity. They are isolated in urban centers, and left behind in rural areas, and their values are questioned and blamed for bringing negative outcomes and making the wrong choices. They depend more and more on the social welfare state, and their homes are broken up by the foster care program.

It is then that their resentment of the rich and educated, as well as governmental bureaucracies, the so-called Elite, began to show its face. Poor whites saw their bosses and speculators get richer while they became poorer. In his first election, Barack Obama refer to them as “clinging to their guns and their religion”; and lately Hillary Clinton called them the “deplorable ones”; and Donald Trump said, “The problem we have right now, we have a society that sits back and says we are not to do anything, and eventually the 50% cannot carry, and it’s unfair to them, but cannot carry the other 50%”.

Because of similarities between them and poor blacks, poor whites don’t have a sense of competition or animosity toward the black poor—although they express a perverse believe that they are different. Even the Ku Klux Klan, recognizing this anomaly, has changed its credo to attract more poor white to its flocks by publicly stating that they don’t hate blacks, they just want to live separate from them. There is no explicit kinship between the poor white and the poor of other races.

Although they are Christians, they are abandoning the church services, because pastors are considered by them as church merchants and abusers, and churches are being closed down in their neighborhoods and are flaring up in richer ones. They are listening more to radio and TV talk shows that point out the presumable reasons for their social predicament, such as foreign immigrants taken their jobs away and contributing to lowering wages, and the disgust toward them by bureaucracies and the educated and well-to-do people. Older and young men have a high incidence of alcohol and drug abuse, as do young women, who are particularly addicted to heroin and opioids that many times start with pregnancies or injuries. Kids start drugs at earlier ages and are suffering from chronic obesity. The only seem to have  faith in their grandmothers, who invariably are defending them against the bureaucracies. They are admonished by charlatans to mistrust the Elite, and they champion anyone that seems to challenge the establishment, from Tiger Woods as a shaker of the rich man’s world, to Donald Trump speaking his mind to the politicians and the media as they would like to do it themselves. They mistrust foreign or unfamiliar images of power, such as the former U.N. Secretary Kofi Annan, whom they called the Antichrist; or Barak Obama, whom they do not recognize as the legitimate president, think of him as a Moslem, and don’t consider him an American citizen.

RELATABILITY

Donald Trump extended this hatred and xenophobia by attacking undocumented Mexican immigrants as rapists, murderers, and drug traffickers. He also reached the support of those in the middle class that are culturally isolated and isolationists, who are very pessimistic about the future, who think that America is headed in the wrong direction, and that their children and grandchildren will not have as good a life as they did. These feelings transpose to the employed blue-collar workers and the conservative church-going middle class, and that is where Trump gets the rest of his support. And it doesn’t hurt that the Democrats have one of their weakest candidates ever and that Hillary Clinton just doesn’t know how to talk to this sector of society; she is culturally disconnected, in spite of her middle-class blue-collar upbringing, as opposed to Trump’s privileged well-to-do European-style life.

The poor white have been periodically used in political electoral follies. In the 1830s, Andrew Jackson called them his “common men”; in the 1970s, Jimmy Carter called himself a “white trash made good”; in the 1990s, Bill Clinton had a “white trash outting on the grand national stage”; in the 2008 elections, Sara Palin invoked her “hockey Moms and militia babes”; and resently Donald Trump said, “I love my poorly-educated.”

Jaime Otero Zuazo

 

REFERENCES

✴U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Commerce

✴Vance, J. D. (2016), Hillbilly Elogy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis

✴Isenberg, Nancy (2016), White Trash: The 400-Year Untold History of Class in America

✴Hochschild, Arlie Russell, Strangers in Their Own Land: Anger and Mourning on the American Right

ATTRIBUTIONS

Figure 1: Members of the Mash family, among 14 people who crammed into this 4 bedroom house in Nelsonville, Ohio because of a lack of jobs.
-Inside Dateline: Ann Curry on the photographs (Ann Curry / NBC News)

 

THE WALL

Donald J. Trump, president and chairman of the Trump Organization and republican presidential candidate in 2016 launched his candidacy by proclaiming, “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re bringing crime; they’re rapists; and some, I assume, are good people.” Adding, “I will build the greatest wall that you’ve ever seen. I want my name on it, a gorgeous wall, a Trump wall. Oh, would that be beautiful!” …”And Mexico will pay for it!”

The border wall between the United States and Mexico is 1954 miles long covering California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas on the U.S. side, and Trump wants to cover every inch of it with a concrete, high-tech, tall wall that will prevent the entry of undocumented immigrants and illicit merchandize.

 

COST AND CONSTRUCTION OF THE TRUMP WALL

In 2015, Trump said he could build the wall for $4B,“If you know how to do it. And I alone know how to do it.” This is an almost 60% sale on the real price, In 2016, he said the wall would really be $6b to $8B; and then $10B; and recently he declared “maybe $12B, depending…”

Engineers and professional constructors have calculated the cost at $10B for just the 35 ft. concrete panels; and added $5-6B for steel columns to hold the panels, including labor; $1B more for concrete footing for columns plus the concrete foundation. To this the estimate adds $2B for roads and infrastructure that can accommodate for 20-ton trucks to deliver the materials; plus $7B for engineers, designers and management. And finally to keep up the structure for the next seven years, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) calculates another $25B.

The estimated total is at least $50B (for a four-year long construction project) without including the costs of tripling, according to Trump, the number of federal enforcement officers. Curiously, that is the amount of yearly remittances by ordinary people to Mexico; and the amount of the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico. And this is one of the points Trump brings forth as a bargaining tool that will force Mexico to pay for the border wall. On August 16, 2016 he announce his immigration policy and said, ¨Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the U.S. will, among other things, impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats, and if necessary cancel them; increase fees on all border crossing cards—of which we issue about a million to Mexican nationals each year— a major source of visa “overstays”—; increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas form Mexico—another major source of “overstays”—; and increase fees at ports of entry to the U.S. from Mexico. Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options.”

After his resent visit with president Peña Nieto of Mexico, he said, “Mexico is going to pay for the wall and they don’t even know about it.” Reminds us of the old Mexican saying that goes: ¨Poor Mexico, so far away from God and so close to the United States!

When Trump reminds us that he will build a wall tall enough that, “If they ever get up there, there’s no way to get down.” But critics remind us that trespassers usually bring a rope with them for the drop; and that a 35 ft. tall wall will only create a market for 45 ft. ladders. And about contraband or illegal drugs: many tunnels have been dug under the border; submarines and motor driven into U.S. coastal regions; small planes, balloons and drones flown over the border; shooting cannons, catapults and ramps engaged; and even good-arm throwers are recruted.

Mexico’s current Secretary of the Treasury has said, “Mexico, under no circumstances, is going to pay for the wall that Mr. Trump is proposing.” Two former Mexican presidents have expressed similar feelings. Felipe Calderón said, “We are not going to pay a single cent for such a stupid wall.” And Vicente Fox, famously said, “I declare: I’m not going to pay for that f******g wall. He should pay for it.” Trump’s answers back: “The wall just got 10 ft. taller.”

CURRENT STATUS OF THE BORDER

Twenty thousand federal agents of the Department Of Homeland Security’s U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) handle the control of undocumented immigration. Also the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) under the same department, enforces and investigates national security risks, including border security. The American Border Patrol (ABP) is a non-governmental entity that uses mostly unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and wireless, solar-powered border cameras. Monitoring can be done through the Internet from anywhere in the U.S.

After the attack of 9/11, Congress and President George W. Bush agreed on the “2006 Secure Fence Act”. Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton voted for it in the Senate. A variety of problems arose as soon as soon construction of the border fence began. The Rio Grande in Texas and other smaller rivers fall under a 1973 treaty that prevents altering river flow in the border. Up to 3/4 of some privately owned properties will end up in the wrong side of the border. In Texas border land does not belong to the federal government.

John Moore/Getty Images

The federal government had to sue hundreds of land property owners to build the border fence, claiming eminent domain on border private property. President Bush had to waive 36 existing laws, including the “Endanger Species Act”, “The Safe Drinking Water Act”, and the Native Americans Grave Protection and Reparation Act.’ And environmentalists point out the threat to animal species like the bison.

Today there are 600 miles of pedestrian fences, vehicle barricades, and some thick concrete walls with mounted cameras. There are major geographical challenges for building the fence, such as varied terrain, urban centers, beaches, rolling desert dunes, and scorching flat lands. Completing the wall will have to cut through National Parks, Native American reservations, flood lands and private property.

MODE OF UNAUTHORIZED ENTRY INTO THE UNITED STATES

Currently, one half of undocumented migrants now living in the United States came legally through ports of entry such as airports or border crossing points and then overstated their visas. According to a FACTANK analysis by the Pew Research Center, the number of undocumented immigrants from Mexico has declined consistently since 2009. “The number of unauthorized immigrants from nations other than Mexico grew by 325,000 since 2009, to an estimated 5.3 million in 2014.” The Pew report states that, “59% of unauthorized immigrants in 2014 end up in California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Illinois, and that, “A rising share of unauthorized immigrants has lived in the U.S. for at least a decade.”

Jaime Otero-Zuazo

Donald Trump’s 2016 Economic Plan

“The problem we have right now, we have a society that sits back and says we’re not to do anything. And eventually the 50% cannot carry, and is unfair to them.  But cannot carry the other 50%.”  And added,  “The country cannot sustain itself.  I alone know how to do it”.

On August 8, 2016, at the Detroit Economic Club in Michigan, Donald Trump said that: “The greatest economic program is jobs.” He promises to bring back the manufacturing jobs that left America after the free trade agreements of the past 30 years. These jobs will be of little use in today’s competitive world and in satisfying the present national demand. Technology has evolved and what we need now is high-tech precision jobs, which requires a trained and educated labor force. The industries and the craftsmanship of the future need to be considered on their own value. We not only need more jobs, we need more investment and education in the industries of the future that will produce real modernized jobs.

Donald Trump has also called for the end of Obama environmental regulations, and a temporary hold on all regulations. This includes food regulations that keeps us safe, and many other regulations that we depend on as consumers. There are other regulations to consider keeping, such as those imposed on Wall Street, typically Dodd-Frank, and even reinstating the long-missed Glass-Steagall Act, that will prevent another collapse of the financial sectors of the economy.

Trump calls himself the “King of Debt”, but if the economy does not grow at a constant 4-5% a year for the predictable future, $34 trillion will add to the national debt in the next 20 years ($100,000 per capita). So far we do not have enough specifics on the economic growth plan under a Trump presidency, but what we know is more than enough to guarantee a prolonged deficit. We know that he is calling for a 15% deduction in taxes for the rich, which is almost half the present rate— made worse by the fact that wealthy tax payers usually end up paying lower rates than the estimated taxes. Trump will not cut military spending, and will increase spending on veterans. There will be no cuts in entitlements; and there will be enormous expenditures in immigration enforcement, and the building and maintenance of the border Wall. No changes in Social Security and Medicare are considered. Finally, Trump is calling for large infrastructure investments (three times the Clinton figures, according to him.)

Using this information, all 10-year econometric projections show that instead of reducing the debt, Trump’s plan will largely increase it. The trickle-down policies of the 1980s, to which many of the economic Trump advisers subscribe to, such as his senior economic adviser David Malpass, have not improved real wages since the Reagan days. Tax cuts do not result in better wages either, even when incorporated into the economy, but instead they result in a greater gap between the rich 1% and the rest. There is also the albatross around our economy’s neck of an existing $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities.

On 6/28/2016, at the Monessen, PA Steel plant, Donald Trump said that in the past 20 years, “Our worker’s loyalty was repaid with total betrayal”. In this anti-corporation speech he blamed globalization for, “Moving our jobs and wealth and our factories to Mexico and overseas, made possible by wealthy corporations buying politicians and leaving millions in poverty.” He also denounced a “Campaign of fear and intimidation by powerful corporations, media elites, and political dynasties.” Earlier, on 6/26/2016, he had said, “The people who rig the system support Hillary Clinton.” And in reference to the so-called elites, he said, “It’s time for the American people to take back their future.”

Trump is right in pointing out corporate greed and that since 1997 America has lost 1/3 of its manufacturing jobs, while the population has increased by 50 million, but the remedies he vaguely expresses seem to herald a kind of corporatist economic model, where corporations are subject to state orders. On 6/17/2015, Trump told Fox’s Sean Hannity, “The problem we have right now, we have a society that sits back and says we are not to do anything. and eventually the 50% cannot carry, and it’s unfair to them. But cannot carry the other 50 %.” And added, “The country cannot sustain itself. I alone know how to do it”. He proposes to improve wage growth by lowering taxes for the rich, and bringing back money from overseas (with only a 10% tax).

On trade, at the Monessen Steel plant, he said, “We already have a trade war and we are losing badly.” And added, “America will be independent once more.”

According to Donald Trump, Mexico will pay for the border Wall, otherwise he will stop all money transfers to Mexico. But Mexico, in turn, may threaten an import ban of all agricultural products from the U.S. Under these circumstances, NAFTA may collapse under its own weight, reducing further the chances of economic growth in the Unites States, especially in the bordering and agricultural states. It is important to point out that one of the main reasons for the economic hardship of Mexicans and Central Americans is that the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), under corporate-forced rules, destroyed the emerging agribusiness and traditional agriculture in those countries. Trump has pledge to re-negotiate all trade agreements to “help America”, and stop any participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (T.P.P.) multilateral agreement.

The support of college-educated women for Trump is dwindling. In response, Ivanka Trump, the candidate’s daughter, has developed a fully deductible childcare-cost proposal that she announced at the Republican National Convention in an impressive speech. The Trump plan will deduct the equivalent of the state average of the child care cost from new parents’ taxes. It was later clarified that if no tax is owed because of low income, then the child care costs can be deducted from payroll taxes. More details are unavailable. The family and medical leave Act of 1993  guarantees 12 weeks to care for a new child, parents-related sick leave, or personal medical issues— but it only covers 6% of the population, since all businesses making less than $50,000 are exempt. The law does not guarantee paid leave, which makes the U.S. the only industrialized nation without paid family leave. Trump also supports eliminating the “death tax” (estate tax).

According to the non-partisan Tax Policy Center, Donald Trump made false and misleading statements in the Detroit speech of August 8, 2016 as follows:

• He distorted two quotes from Hillary Clinton in wrongly claiming she “wanted to raise taxes on the middle class.” The bottom 95% of taxpayers “would see little or no change” in taxes under Clinton’s plan.
• Trump misleadingly claimed that Clinton would “tax many small businesses by almost 50%.” The only tax policy change he’s referencing is a 4% tax on household income above $5 million, which Clinton has proposed.
• Trump said he’d repeal the estate tax, saying Americans “should not be taxed again at death.” Fewer than 5,000 people had to pay any estate tax in 2014, and investments wouldn’t be “taxed again,” if they hadn’t been sold prior to the owner’s death.
• He claimed he would save “2 million American jobs” by repealing the Affordable Care Act. That’s an old distortion of the Congressional Budget Office’s analyses, which found some workers would choose to work fewer hours or retire earlier mainly due to the insurance-expansion provisions of the law.
• Trump uses outdated Census data to falsely claim that household income is “$4,000 less today” than it was 16 years ago.
• Trump touted an increase in those who are “outside of the labor force” of nearly 14 million people under President Obama. That figure includes retirees — such as the baby boom generation — teenagers and stay-at-home parents.
• Trump also said that “58% of African-American youth are either outside of the labor force or not employed.” That factors in those age 16 to 24 who are not looking for work, which would include many in school.

Following is a summary of the proposed Trump economic policies:

Child care expenses fully deductible; withdraw from PPT; renegotiate NAFTA; restart Keystone XL pipeline; withdraw US from Paris climate agreement; end Obama environmental regulations; temporarily stop all regulations; tax reduction for all with the larger tax cuts for the rich; corporate tax reduced to 15%; tax filing simplification; tax breakdown to 3 brackets of 12%, 25% and 33% tax levels; dead (Estate) tax eliminated; minimum wage of $12 per hour; Social Security will be kept as is; and national debt will be eliminated as a result of economic growth rate rising to 4-5%.

Jaime Otero-Zuazo

Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Economic Plan

T he democrats’ anti-capitalist screed is a quasi-socialist cry for “making the rich pay”, and requires larger government growth. Excessive government involvement and regulation in healthcare, the workplace, education, and across the private sector has contributed to stagnant growth rates in the past. On investment and wealth, Clinton picks the Bernie Sanders line: “Democracy is not working the way it should”. Could this be because of too much government interference?

On August, 11, 2016, in Detroit, Michigan, Hillary Clinton proposed a family plan that includes: 1) mandatory and guaranteed paid family leave for new parents— about 2/3 of weekly income. 2) Child costs are not to exceed 10% of family income. 3) Universal pre-Kinder. There are no specifics on the ceiling income for these proposals. Cost of child care on average is about $17,062 a year for infants and $12,781 a year for 4-year olds.

Hillary Clinton has proposed to ease unemployment through a government stimulus plan that considers the “green” industries, the public sector, and government subsidized jobs. However, central government job programs only work after tax reduction on businesses; or else jobs will vanish in the larger economy. Workers, entrepreneurs and consumers all benefit from the reduction in corporate taxes, simplification of the bureaucracy, and elimination of excessive business regulations that halt productivity and growth. Private commerce growth and wealth accumulation are important in increasing employment and reducing the national debt. Small businesses can thrive if the government institutes tax-liberating policies that are meaningful.

Clinton proposes a more progressive and complex tax code requiring those with adjusted gross incomes over $1 million to pay a minimum of 30% of their income (Buffett Rule); modifying taxation of multinational corporations to cut tax avoidance; repealing fossil fuel tax incentives; and increasing estate and gift taxes. She presented a detailed long-term investment incentive based on a six-year tax sliding scale.

This would increase revenue by $1.1 trillion over the next decade and an extra $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years, before considering macroeconomic adjustments. The top 1 percent of households would pay more than three-fourths of Clinton’s total tax increases; the bottom 95 percent of taxpayers would see little or no change in their taxes.

The revenues from tax collection are to fund social costs and public economic investment with a middle class emphasis, job creation, raising wages, and key items, such as education.

Clinton subscribes to a minimum wage of $15 per hour. And she promises to expand Social Security benefits.

Even though Clinton called T.P.P. (not ratified yet) the “gold standard” of multilateral trade agreements and contributed to its design as Secretary of State, today she states that she does not support T.P.P. in its “current form”.

Clinton also offers to cut student debt through a program of compensation. But this does not consider other major expenses such as fees, room and board, books, and supplies. Excessive college costs limit our knowledge-based economy, and should be included as a critical factor in both public and private investment.

The democrats’ anti-capitalist screed is a quasi-socialist cry for “making the rich pay”, and requires larger government growth. Excessive government involvement and regulation in healthcare, the workplace, education, and across the private sector has contributed to stagnant growth rates in the past. On investment and wealth, Clinton picks the Bernie Sanders line: “Democracy is not working the way it should”. Could this be because of too much government interference?

Jaime Otero-Zuazo